Time to death and its predictors among under-five children on antiretroviral treatment in public hospitals of Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, a retrospective follow up study

Abstract

Background Child mortality remains a global public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. After initiating ART, the mortality rate among HIV-infected children in Ethiopia was 12–17 deaths per 1000 child-year. Objective To determine the time to death and its predictors among under-five children on antiretroviral treatment in public hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from April 12, 2017, to May 12, 2022. Method An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 415 HIV-infected children at selected public hospitals of the Addis Ababa town administration. Computer generated simple random sampling technique was used to select each sampling unit. Data was extracted using a structured data extraction checklist. Data were entered into EPI data 4.2 and analyzed using STATA 14. The child mortality rate was calculated. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted to identify predictor factors. The result of the study was presented using text, tables, graphs, and charts. An adjusted hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval and a p-value less than 0.05 was used to declare the level of significance. Result A total of 415 (97.42%) of the 426 children on ART were included for analysis. Of these, 41(9.88%) children were died during the following period. The study participants were followed for a total of 8237 person- months of risk time. The overall mortality rate was 4.98 (95% CI: 3.67–6.77) per 1000 child-months. The estimated survival after starting ART was 61.42% at 56 months of follow-up. Severe underweight (AHR = 3.19; 95% CI: 1.32–7.71), tuberculosis (AHR = 3.86; CI: 1.76–8.47), low hemoglobin level (AHR = 2.51; CI: 1.02–6.20), and advanced WHO clinical stages at enrolment (AHR = 3.38; CI: 1.08–10.58) were predictors of death among HIV-infected under-five children on ART. Conclusion The incidence of mortality was 4.98 per 1000 child-months. Severe underweight, tuberculosis infection, low hemoglobin level, and advanced WHO clinical stages at enrolment were predictors of death among under-five children on ART.