Statistical injury prediction for professional sumo wrestlers: Modeling and perspectives

Author:

Ota ShuheiORCID,Kimura Mitsuhiro

Abstract

In sumo wrestling, a traditional sport in Japan, many wrestlers suffer from injuries through bouts. In 2019, an average of 5.2 out of 42 wrestlers in the top division of professional sumo wrestling were absent in each grand sumo tournament due to injury. As the number of injury occurrences increases, professional sumo wrestling becomes less interesting for sumo fans, requiring systems to prevent future occurrences. Statistical injury prediction is a useful way to communicate the risk of injuries for wrestlers and their coaches. However, the existing statistical methods of injury prediction are not always accurate because they do not consider the long-term effects of injuries. Here, we propose a statistical model of injury occurrences for sumo wrestlers. The proposed model provides the estimated probability of the next potential injury occurrence for a wrestler. In addition, it can support making a risk-based injury prevention scenario for wrestlers. While a previous study modeled injury occurrences by using the Poisson process, we model it by using the Hawkes process to consider the long-term effect of injuries. The proposed model can also be applied to injury prediction for athletes of other sports.

Funder

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference50 articles.

1. Nihon Sumo Kyokai (Japan Sumo Association). Nihon Sumo Kyokai [Internet]. 2022 [cited 2022 Aug 1]. Available from: https://www.sumo.or.jp/En

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