Agricultural drought response to meteorological drought over different agro-climatic zones of the Ganga River basin

Abstract

Abstract Drought directly impacts the agricultural ecosystem, thus causing significant threat to regional and global food security. Investigating the occurrence and propagation patterns of drought events is crucial for its better understanding and mitigation. The study investigates different agro-climatic regions of the Ganga River basin from 2001 to 2020 to quantify meteorological drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Additionally, the assessment of agricultural drought was conducted using the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). For understanding the propagation dynamics of drought, Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC)-based approach was employed to compute the propagation time between meteorological and agricultural drought types. Stronger correlations were observed between SPI and SSMI compared to SPI and NDVI anomaly, highlighting the direct connection between precipitation and soil moisture. The results of the present study show that the time for propagation ranges within 1–11 months across the Ganga basin as inferred from the maximum PCC values between the SPI and SSMI time series. The propagation rate from meteorological drought to agricultural drought varied from 29.03 to 73.33% among different agro-climatic regions. The insights gained from this analysis on propagation time and rate can inform policymakers in formulating appropriate measure.