Modeling climate change projection and its impact on the streamflow in the Yadot watershed, Genale Dawa basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

ABSTRACT Varied streamflow response to climate between river basins and seasons highlight the importance of further research on different basins and watersheds in different seasons to help plan adaptation options at watershed scale. This study investigated the hydrological impacts of climate change over the Yadot watershed. The multi model ensemble of three regional climate models (CCLM4.8, RACMO22T, and RCA4) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for 2021 -2050 and 2051–2080 were used. The SWAT model was used to simulate the streamflow. Climate model projections have indicated that precipitation will slightly increase during both the wet and dry seasons from 0.59%–2.08% and 0.02%–1.59%, respectively. The annual projected precipitation will increase by 0.13%–1.66%. The change in the projected maximum and minimum temperatures in both dry and wet seasons increased by a range of 0.61°C–1.9°C and 0.65°C–2.07°C, respectively. Similarly, the change in the projected minimum temperatures in both dry and wet seasons increased by a range of 1.07°C–2.01°C and 0.06°C–1.66°C, respectively. The wet and dry season streamflow increased by 6.23%–9.36% and 3.16%–5.46%, respectively. The findings of this study can help to guide water resources planners and designers in planning and managing water resources effectively for future use.