Evaluating the impact of various driving factors on future water supply and demands

Abstract

ABSTRACT The mismatch between water supply and demand challenges sustainable human–environment development. Understanding future water supply–demand dynamics and underlying mechanisms is crucial for water resource sustainability. This study presents a framework for analyzing water supply–demand dynamics and their driving mechanisms under future land use/land cover (LULC) changes in China's Han River (HR) Basin using PLUS, InVEST, and geographic detector models. Results show precipitation increased slowly (0.64) from 2000 to 2020, while potential evapotranspiration slightly decreased (−0.02). By 2030, under the scenarios of the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS), significant changes are projected in forest, cropland, and construction land. The future impact of LULC on water supply is concentrated between 0.17 and 0.45%, while its effect on water demand is significant, approximately 10%. The water security index (WSI) in the HR Basin gradually declined from 0.118 to 0.078. Particularly in the EPS scenario, WSI improves (0.103). In the future, LULC will increasingly influence water yield in conjunction with other factors, but excessive precipitation will dampen the impact of other factors on water yield. This study enhances understanding of water resource balance evolution, enabling sustainable LULC development for ecological conservation and economic coordination.