Exploring the sensitivity of river flow patterns to meteorological drought using multifractal and cross-correlation applications

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change has impacted both the duration and intensity of droughts during the past decades. Rivers are valuable resources that are sensitive to alterations owing to droughts. Thus, due to the river importance and drought pattern changes, the effect of meteorological drought on river flow patterns is critical. In this study, the influence of meteorological drought on the river flow was explored using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and the cross-correlation technique. The Hamoon Basin in Iran was selected, and precipitation and river flow data (discharge) from 1966 to 2016 were evaluated. The findings revealed that when the severity and frequency of meteorological droughts augmented, the river flow time-series structure's susceptibility to substantial fluctuations reduced. In addition, the river flow exhibited more correlated behavior. Furthermore, the multifractal behavior of the flow intensified. Furthermore, the highest cross-correlation value was 0.32, which was related to α(0) vs. SPI. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between meteorological conditions and river flow's multifractality, sensitivity to changes, and correlated behavior. It introduces a new approach to understand the relationship between river flow patterns' dynamics and meteorological conditions, which has not been previously explored. The findings are relevant to water resource management, drought and river flow studies, and water engineering.