Development of intensity–duration–frequency relationships in Khon Kaen City, Thailand under changing climate using GCMs and a simple scaling method

Abstract

Abstract This study analyses the annual maximum (AM) rainfall series (1991–2022) in Khon Kaen City, Thailand. The AM rainfall series ranging from 3 to 24 h was best fitted to the Log-Pearson Type-III distribution. Notably, our findings reveal linear relationships between the moments of rainfall intensities and durations establishing the practicality of the simple scaling method for disaggregating 24-h AM rainfall data. Additionally, the results of this method are influenced by factors such as sample size, rainfall durations and the chosen probability distribution. Comparisons between intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves obtained through the simple scaling method and those derived from traditional frequency analysis provide valuable insights. Furthermore, this method was applied to bias-corrected rainfall data of 15 global climate models facilitating the generation of future IDF curves under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Our results highlight that rainfall events in the SSP5-8.5 scenario are projected to exhibit higher intensities emphasizing the need to understand and prepare for increased rainfall extremes in the context of climate change. This research contributes valuable insights into rainfall analysis and prediction techniques, which are crucial for effective water resource management and climate adaptation strategies in the Khon Kaen region.