Lijiang flood characteristics and implication of karst storage through Muskingum flood routing via HEC-HMS, S. China

Abstract

Abstract We analyzed the characteristics of main karstic/non-karst reaches of the Lijiang River to uncover the causes behind different flood behaviors by providing a better understanding of the flood formation. Having 63 years of rainfall-runoff data and applying the HEC-HMS model, geo/hydrological features were investigated. The available reservoir capacity of karts (ARCK) was included through soil moisture accounting loss data to assess its impact. In particular, the expected instantaneous peak discharge rates/times were found largely imbalanced with generated unit hydrographs. Moreover, significant gaps among the floods’ features for different subbasins in terms of required peak modifications (2–4 times larger for mid-upstream, respectively) were mainly associated with the unique karst structure and initial condition due to various ARCK in rainy/dry seasons. Besides, notable dissimilarities between the wedge/prism storage volumes and the hydrograph’s wave traveling/receding time were observed owing to the geomorphological conditions. Although the contribution rates of drivers in karst flood formation cannot be quantitively modeled, based on our results the ARCK emerged to play a substantial role on the forecasted results, comparatively. Our results suggest that since ARCK varies, taking it into account (as initial abstraction) results in a more reliable estimation. This was underpinned by the results in which the unmodified simulations had a qualified rate of 52% accuracy on average and increased to 67.5% after the ARCK inclusion. This work adds to the body of evidence illustrating that in karst hydrology, ignoring the situational circumstances in modeling might lead to inaccuracies in flood forecasting for such dynamic watersheds.