Sensitivity analysis of the CLARA Simplified Planning Tool using the Morris screening method

Abstract

The Morris screening sensitivity analysis (SA) has been used to assess how the uncertainty of input parameters influences the output of the CLARA Simplified Planning Tool (CLARA-SPT). To assess the sensitivity of the tool, four hypothetical waste collection and treatment alternatives, which planned to serve 10,000 people, have been proposed and analysed. These alternatives are (A1) dry sanitation with urine diversion dry toilets (UDDTs), (A2) water-aided sanitation with decentralised treatment units, (A3) water-aided sanitation with central technical treatment and (A4) water-aided sanitation with cesspits. The SA was used to identify the influence of two global and 29 technological input parameters on lifetime costs and residual values of sanitation alternatives. The top two important parameters identified for each alternative are: ‘type of urine transport’ and ‘persons using one UDDT’ for alternative A1, ‘persons served per septic tank’ and ‘required surface area for vertical flow constructed wetland’ for alternative A2, ‘daily diesel generator working hours’ and ‘expected annual growth’ for alternative A3 and ‘cesspit volume’ and ‘expected annual growth’ for alternative A4. Additionally, the Morris SA identified non-linearity and/or parameter interaction response. The SA of the specified alternatives shows that from the 29 technological parameters investigated, a subset of 14 important parameters need estimates that are more accurate, whereas a subset of 15 non-influential parameters can be fixed to a certain value. In particular, two parameters (i.e. cesspit volume and persons using one UDDT) that have been internally fixed in the SPT were found to be important and thus should be made available as input parameters to the user. Overall, the study provides guidance for further modification and simplification of the CLARA-SPT.