Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020

Published:2020-04-16 Issue:15 Volume:25 Page:
ISSN:1560-7917
Container-title:Eurosurveillance
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Etard Jean-François¹²^ORCID,Vanhems Philippe³⁴^ORCID,Atlani-Duault Laëtitia⁵⁶^ORCID,Ecochard René⁷⁸⁹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. EpiGreen, Paris, France

2. TransVIHMI, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France

3. Laboratoire des Pathogènes Emergents, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (CIRI), Université de Lyon, Lyon, France

4. Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service d‘Hygiène Hospitalière, Epidémiologie, Infectiovigilance et Prévention, Lyon, France

5. Fondation Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH), Paris, France

6. Centre Population et Développement (CEPED), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Université de Paris, Paris, France

7. Université de Lyon, Lyon, France

8. Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, Lyon, France

9. Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, Équipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, France

Abstract

Motivated by the potential devastating effect of a COVID-19 outbreak in retirement homes and long-term facilities for dependent elderly, we present the impact of worst-case scenarios in French institutions using a specific age structure and case–age fatality ratios. The death toll could equal the yearly death toll caused by seasonal influenza in those older than 65 years or could largely exceed that, depending on the final attack rate and proportion of infected institutions.

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

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