Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021

Author:

Gaymard Alexandre123,Bosetti Paolo41,Feri Adeline51,Destras Gregory23,Enouf Vincent6,Andronico Alessio4,Burrel Sonia7,Behillil Sylvie6,Sauvage Claire5,Bal Antonin23,Morfin Florence23,Van Der Werf Sylvie6,Josset Laurence23,Blanquart François89,Coignard Bruno105,Cauchemez Simon104,Lina Bruno1023, ,

Affiliation:

1. These authors contributed equally

2. Centre International de recherche en infectiologie (CIRI), Virpath Team, Inserm U1111, CNRS UMR5308, École Normale Supérieure de Lyon, UCBL, Université de Lyon, Lyon, France

3. CNR des virus des infections respiratoires (dont la Grippe), Institut des Agents Infectieux, Hopital de la Croix Rousse, HCL, Lyon, France

4. Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR 2000, CNRS, Paris, France

5. Santé Publique France, Direction des maladies infectieuses, Saint-Maurice, France

6. CNR des virus des infections respiratoires (dont la Grippe), Molecular Genetics of RNA Viruses, CNRS UMR 3569, Institut Pasteur, Université de Paris, Paris, France

7. GHU Pitié-Salpêtrière APHP, 83, boulevard de l’hôpital & SU-INSERM UMR_S 1136 Team 3 THERAVIR IPLESP, Paris, France

8. Infection Antimicrobials Modelling Evolution, UMR 1137, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France

9. Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology (CIRB), Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM, PSL Research University, Paris, France

10. These senior authors contributed equally

Abstract

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variant 20I/501Y.V1 (VOC-202012/1 or GR/501Y.V1) is concerning given its increased transmissibility. We reanalysed 11,916 PCR-positive tests (41% of all positive tests) performed on 7–8 January 2021 in France. The prevalence of 20I/501Y.V1 was 3.3% among positive tests nationwide and 6.9% in the Paris region. Analysing the recent rise in the prevalence of 20I/501Y.V1, we estimate that, in the French context, 20I/501Y.V1 is 52–69% more transmissible than the previously circulating lineages, depending on modelling assumptions.

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

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