A framework for measuring timeliness in the outbreak response path: lessons learned from the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemic, September 2012 to January 2019

Abstract

Background Epidemics are a constant threat in the 21st century, particularly disease outbreaks following spillover of an animal virus to humans. Timeliness, a key metric in epidemic response, can be examined to identify critical steps and delays in public health action. Aim To examine timeliness, we analysed the response to the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemic, with a focus on the international and One Health response efforts. Methods We performed a historical review of the MERS epidemic between September 2012 and January 2019 in three steps: (i) the construction of a timeline identifying critical events in the global response, (ii) the performance of a critical path analysis to define outbreak milestones and (iii) a time gap analysis to measure timeliness in the execution of these milestones. Results We proposed 14 MERS-specific milestones at different phases of the epidemic, assessing timeliness of the public health response as well as at the animal–human interface, where we identified the most significant delays. Conclusions When comparing timeliness across three coronavirus epidemics, i.e. MERS (2012), SARS (2002) and COVID-19 (2019), we identified clear improvements over time for certain milestones including laboratory confirmation and diagnostics development, while this was not as apparent for others, as the identification of zoonotic hosts. To more efficiently respond to emerging threats, the global health community should widely assess and tackle specific delays in implementing response interventions by addressing challenges in the sharing of information, data and resources, as well as efficiency, quality, transparency and reliability of reporting events.