Seasonal Pattern in Firearm Injury-Related Cases at Casualty Department of a Teaching Hospital

Abstract

Firearm injuries pose a substantial public health concern worldwide, with their incidence and patterns varying across different regions and time periods. Understanding the temporal trends and seasonal patterns of firearm injury-related cases is essential for guiding preventive strategies and optimizing healthcare resource allocation. Objective: To determine the seasonal patterns and trends in firearm injury-related cases. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted at Casualty Department, Forensic Medicine Toxicology, Liaquat University Hospital, Hyderabad, Pakistan from 1stJanuary 2021 to 31stDecember 2023. Four hundred and forty-three emergency cases associated with firearm injuries across the three years were enrolled. Results: The occurrences decreased from February to March and November to December, with peaks in August and January.Seasonal decomposition analysis further confirmed the presence of a noticeable seasonal trend, with spikes observed in January and August, indicating a potential surge in firearm injury incidences during festivals. Moreover, an increasing trend in firearm-related injuries was observed from March to August, suggesting increase in such incidents during warmer months. Conclusions: The firearm-related injuries exhibit seasonal patterns, spiking in summer (months from March to August), the cause of which needs to be elaborated in future researches.