Evaluation of Changes in Prices and Purchases Following Implementation of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes Across the US

Abstract

ImportanceSugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes are promoted as key policies to reduce cardiometabolic diseases and other conditions, but comprehensive analyses of SSB taxes in the US have been difficult because of the absence of sufficiently large data samples and methods limitations.ObjectiveTo estimate changes in SSB prices and purchases following SSB taxes in 5 large US cities.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIn this cross-sectional study with an augmented synthetic control analysis, changes in prices and purchases of SSBs were estimated following SSB tax implementation in Boulder, Colorado; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Oakland, California; Seattle, Washington; and San Francisco, California. Changes in SSB prices (in US dollars) and purchases (volume in ounces) in these cities in the 2 years following tax implementation were estimated and compared with control groups constructed from other cities. Changes in adjacent, untaxed areas were assessed to detect any increase in cross-border purchases. Data used for this analysis spanned from January 1, 2012, to February 29, 2020, and were analyzed between June 1, 2022, and September 29, 2023.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe main outcomes were the changes in SSB prices and volume purchased.ResultsUsing nutritional information, 5500 unique universal product codes were classified as SSBs, according to tax designations. The sample included 26 338 stores—496 located in treated localities, 1340 in bordering localities, and 24 502 in the donor pool. Prices of SSBs increased by an average of 33.1% (95% CI, 14.0% to 52.2%; P < .001) during the 2 years following tax implementation, corresponding to an average price increase of 1.3¢ per oz and a 92% tax pass-through rate from distributors to consumers. SSB purchases declined in total volume by an average of 33.0% (95% CI, −2.2% to −63.8%; P = .04) following tax implementation, corresponding to a −1.00 price elasticity of demand. The observed price increase and corresponding volume decrease immediately followed tax implementation, and both outcomes were sustained in the months thereafter. No evidence of increased cross-border purchases following tax implementation was found.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this cross-sectional study, SSB taxes led to substantial, consistent declines in SSB purchases across 5 taxed cities following price increases associated with those taxes. Scaling SSB taxes nationally could yield substantial public health benefits.