Direct Dynamic Triggering Scenarios of the Southern San Andreas Fault by Moderate-Magnitude Cross-Fault Earthquakes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, California

Abstract

Abstract Intersections between small faults and larger faults are ubiquitous throughout the world, including the strike-slip San Andreas system in southern California. In particular, orthogonal intersections may exist in the Brawley seismic zone (BSZ) in the Salton Sea region between small left-lateral strike-slip faults and the main southern San Andreas fault (SSAF). This area often experiences earthquake swarms, which poses the question of whether moderate earthquakes on these left-lateral cross faults (CFs) may propagate to the nearby SSAF, triggering a large, damaging event. To address this question, we present a collection of dynamic rupture scenarios describing the interaction of a representative CF intersecting the highly prestressed SSAF in the BSZ. Our models span a variety of CF earthquake rupture scenarios that vary in magnitude (Mw∼5.2–6.1), rupture depth, location, and directivity to test their potential to trigger the SSAF. We use our models to investigate how the above parameters play an interconnected role in developing ruptures that might trigger the SSAF. Our results highlight that adjacency to the SSAF and shallow rupture enhance the ability of moderate-size CF earthquakes to propagate onto the SSAF. We also show that earthquakes starting at the opposite edge of the CF from the intersection are less likely to trigger the SSAF unless they propagate over at least half of the CF length. Our experiments provide for the first time a benchmark of comparison and insights into rupture parameters that might control the initiation of a significant SSAF event from a smaller CF earthquake. They may also give insight into the general interactions of small faults with larger intersecting faults, such as in the case of the recent 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake.