A Fault-Based Crustal Deformation Model with Deep Driven Dislocation Sources for the 2023 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract

Abstract A fault-based crustal deformation model with deep driven dislocation sources is applied to estimate long-term on-fault slip rates and off-fault moment rate distribution in the western United States (WUS) for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). This model uses the method of Zeng and Shen (2017) to invert for slip rate and strain-rate parameters based on inputs from Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and geologic slip-rate constraints. The model connects adjacent major fault segments in California and the Cascadia subduction zone to form blocks that extend to the boundaries of the study area. Faults within the blocks are obtained from the NSHM geologic fault section database. The model slip rates are determined using a least-squares inversion with a normalized chi-square of 6.6. I also apply a time-dependent correction called “ghost transient” effect to account for the viscoelastic responses from large historic earthquakes along the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. Major discrepancies between model slip rates and geologic slip rates along the San Andreas fault, for example, from the Cholame to the Mojave and San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas, are well reduced after the ghost transient correction is applied to GPS velocities. The off-fault moment rate distribution is consistent with regional tectonics and seismicity patterns with a total rate of 1.6×1019  N·m/yr for the WUS.