Deficient Aeronautical Decision-Making Contributions to Fatal General Aviation Accidents

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: General aviation (GA), mainly comprised of light (≤12,500 lb) aircraft, maintains an inferior safety record compared with air carriers. To improve safety, aeronautical decision-making (ADM) practices have been advocated to GA pilots since 1991. Herein, we determined the extent to which GA pilots disregard such practices.METHODS: Fatal accidents (1991–2019) involving private pilots (PPLs) in single-engine airplanes were identified (N = 1481) from the National Transportation Safety Board AccessR database. Of these, deficient go/no-go and in-flight ADM-related mishaps were scored using the PAVE (pilot, aircraft, environment, external pressure)/IMSAFE (illness, medicine, stress, alcohol, fatigue, eating) and PPP (perceive, process, perform) models, respectively. Statistical testing used Poisson distributions, Fisher exact tests, and Mann-Whitney U-tests.RESULTS: Of the 1481 accidents, 846 were identified as deficient ADM-related. Electing to depart into a hazardous environment (PAVE), disregarding wellness (IMSAFE), and poor aircraft familiarity (PAVE) represented the most common categories (54%, 21%, and 20%, respectively) of errant go/no-go ADM. A 64% decline in fatal accidents related to errant go/no-go decisions for the environment category was evident over the 30-yr period, with little decrements in the other domains. Within the errant environment-related category accidents, the decision to depart into forecasted adverse weather (e.g., degraded visibility, icing, thunderstorms) constituted the most prevalent subcategory (56%, N = 195). Surprisingly, of this subcategory, accidents were overrepresented by over nine- and threefold for instrument-rated PPLs disregarding icing and thunderstorm forecasts, respectively.CONCLUSION: With little decrement in ADM-related accidents in the pilot, aircraft, and external pressure domains, new strategies to address such deficiencies for PPLs are warranted.Boyd DD, Scharf MT. Deficient aeronautical decision-making contributions to fatal general aviation accidents. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2023; 94(11):807–814.