Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures1

Abstract

The aim of this investigation was to develop a predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures between 1°C to 7°C to establish the shelf removal date of the products based on mesophile limits established by Colombian Technical Standard NTC 1325 of 2008 for non-canned processed meat products. The variables used in the model were as follows: temperature, storage time and population of microorganisms at the beginning of storage. The S curve of the growth of the microorganisms was approximated by sections using a multivariate quadratic regression equation. The model achieved 91% accuracy for the prediction of the shelf removal date. In terms of practicality, the model offers a simpler alternative to traditional models for the prediction of microorganisms that require a greater amount of parameters and data.