Party-political dynamics in Norway as a factor in Russian-Norwegian relations

Abstract

The relations between Russia and Norway are of a contradictory nature, containing both positive and negative elements. In the scientific literature, the systemic factors affecting Russian-Norwegian relations are well studied, while the internal political reasons for the transformation of bilateral relations are insufficiently explored. In 2013, i.e. before the international political crisis of 2014, a number of studies noted the cooling of relations between Russia and Norway. At the same time, a center-right coalition came to power in Norway in 2013. The empirical base of the study consists of texts of debates in the Norwegian parliament and program documents of Norwegian parties. The article analyzed the collected data quantitatively and qualitatively. The main method of the quantitative analysis was a targeted sentiment analysis. As a result of the quantitative analysis, it was found that the parties in the center-left ruling coalition had a more positive stance towards Russia than the parties in the center-right coalition. On the basis of this qualitative analysis, three main factors determining the position of one or another party in relation to Russia were identified. First, the view of Norway’s position within the framework of Russia-NATO and Russia-EU relations, which reflects the party’s opinion about Norway’s place in the system of international relations. Secondly, the value content of relations with Russia, which is connected with the ideology of party representatives and the presence of positive historical experience. Thirdly, the assessment of Russia as a threat to Norway’s security. As a result, it was found that the left-wing parties are generally more inclined to consider Norway as a more autonomous and independent actor in relation to the EU and NATO than the right parties. This is due to the positive experience of the left parties in their interaction with Russia, as well as the higher level of importance of development issues in the northern regions of Norway. For right-wing parties, liberal values play an important role in the context of relations with Russia. In addition, they are more inclined to view Russia as a threat to Norway’s security than the center-left and center-right parties.