The connection between the North Pacific sea temperature and the first rainy season precipitation of Guangxi
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摘要:
利用1979—2019年全国160站逐月降水资料、Hadley中心海温资料、NOAA以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，结合相关分析、信息流以及合成分析方法，分析了北太平洋海温异常与广西前汛期降水的同期联系，并初步探讨了前者对后者的影响及可能机制，结果表明：北太平洋关键区海温是广西前汛期降水的显著影响源，海温正位相(负位相)的异常分布在一定程度上导致了广西前汛期降水增多(减少).北太平洋关键区海温变化可以独立于赤道中东太平洋影响前汛期降水，而赤道中东太平洋海温变化可以起到调制作用，增强两者联系.北太平洋为正位相海温异常时，大气为“+-+”的经向三极型位势高度异常响应.与此同时，海温异常激发了向下游中高纬传播的Rossby波列，引起东亚沿岸位势高度正异常和反气旋环流异常.在上述机制下，贝加尔湖高压脊和东亚大槽均显著增强，使得中高纬冷空气更易南下.赤道中东太平洋海温的调制作用体现在对中低纬环流的影响.关键区海温正位相对应于赤道中东太平洋海温偏暖，后者引起局地异常上升运动，减弱Walker环流进而导致赤道西太平洋出现下沉异常，抑制了对流活动，在西北太平洋强迫出异常反气旋，使得副高加强西伸.副高的增强西伸增强了暖湿气流输送，这一方面有利于广西一带的水汽输送，水汽通量辐合增强；另一方面有利于冷暖空气在广西交汇，对流不稳定增强，促进上升运动，最终导致降水增多.北太平洋为负位相时上述异常形势相反，导致降水减少.
Abstract:Using the monthly precipitation data of 160 stations in China, Hadley Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, NOAA and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1979—2019, the simultaneous impact and possible mechanism of North Pacific SST anomalies (NPSTA) on the first rainy season precipitation of Guangxi (FRSP) are investigated. Based on the correlation, composite analysis and information flow theory, the results show that the positive (negative) phase of NPSTA partly leads to the increase (decrease) of FRSP. The NPSTA can affect the FRSP independently of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP), while the CEEP SST anomalies can play a modulation role in enhancing the relationship between the two. The response of the atmospheric circulation to positive phase NPSTA shows a pattern of tripole geopotential height anomalies of "+-+" in meridional. At the same time, the NPSTA excites the middle and high latitudes Rossby wave train propagating downstream, resulting in the positive geopotential height anomalies and anticyclonic anomalies along the East Asian coast. Under the above mechanism, the Baikal ridge and the East Asian trough strengthen significantly, making the cold air in middle and high latitudes southward more easily. The modulation of SST changes in the CEEP is reflected in influencing the circulation in the middle and low latitudes. The positive phase of NPSTA corresponds to the warm SST in the CEEP, which causes the local abnormal upward movement, weakens the Walker circulation and leads to anomalous subsidence in the equatorial western Pacific. As a result, the abnormal subsidence suppressing convective activities, resulting in the abnormal anticyclone in the northwest Pacific, which is conducive to the strengthening and westward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). The strengthening and westward extension of WPSH enhanced the transport of warm and wet air which, on the one hand, is conducive to the transport of water vapor to Guangxi and the strengthening of water vapor flux convergence. On the other hand, it is favorable for the cold surge merged with the warm in Guangxi, which enhances the instability of convection, promotes the upward movement, and eventually causes the enhancement of precipitation. When the NPSTA is in the negative phase, the above abnormal situation is the opposite, resulting in reduced precipitation.
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图 1
海温与广西前汛期站点降水指数IGX的相关系数分布(打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 1.
Distribution of correlation coefficient between the index IGX and SST (the dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
图 2
海温对广西前汛期站点降水指数IGX的信息流分布(单位：nat·a-1，打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 2.
Distribution of information flow from SST to the index IGX (units: nat·a-1, the dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
图 3
广西前汛期降水指数IGX(灰色实线)和海温指数INP(黑色实线)的标准化序列及9年滑动平均(浅蓝和深蓝虚线分别为IGX和INP的平滑曲线)
Figure 3.
Standardized time series for the IGX (gray line) and the INP (black line), 9-year running averages (light blue and dark blue dashed line indicate the smoothed of IGX and INP respectively)
图 5
广西前汛期500 hPa位势高度与INP的相关系数(a)以及与INP(b)和Nino3.4指数(c)的偏相关系数分布(打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 5.
Distribution of correlation coefficient of 500 hPa geopotential height with the INP (a), partial correlations of 500 hPa geopotential height with the INP (b) and Nino3.4 index (c) during Guangxi FRS (dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
图 6
广西前汛期850 hPa风场与INP(a)和Nino3.4指数(b)的偏相关分布
Figure 6.
Distribution of partial correlations of 850 hPa wind with the INP (a) and Nino3.4 index (b) during Guangxi FRS
图 7
NP独立(a，b)和NP普通(c，d)配置下海温正位相年(a，c)和负位相年(b，d)广西前汛期SST异常合成分布(单位：℃，打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 7.
Composite distribution of SST anomaly in positive SST (a, c) and negative SST (b, d) years of NP independent (a, b) and NP normal (c, d) configurations during Guangxi FRS (unit: ℃, the dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
图 8
NP独立配置下海温正、负位相年广西前汛期(a)500 hPa位势高度(色标，单位：gpm)和850 hPa风场(打点和矢量表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)，(b) 500 hPa波作用通量(箭矢，单位：m-2·s-2)及其散度(色标，单位：10-6 m·s-2)的差值合成分布
Figure 8.
Composite difference of (a) 500 hPa geopotential height (contours, unit: gpm) and 850 hPa wind (dotted areas and vectors indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level), (b) 500 hPa wave-activity fluxes (arrows, unit: m-2·s-2) and its divergence (shaded, unit: 10-6m·s-2) between positive and negative SST phase years during Guangxi FRS in the configurations of NP independent
图 9
NP独立配置下海温正、负位相年广西前汛期沿105°E—120°E平均垂直剖面上温度(色标，单位：K)和经向环流(箭矢)的差值合成分布(打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 9.
Composite difference of vertical cross sections of temperature (shaded, unit: K) and meridional circulation (arrows) averaged along 105°E—120°E between positive and negative SST phase years during Guangxi FRS in the configurations of NP independent (the dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
图 10
NP普通配置下海温正、负位相年广西前汛期(a)5°S—5°N平均垂直剖面上垂直速度(色标，单位：10-2Pa·s-1)和纬向环流(箭矢)，(b)OLR(色标，单位：W·m-2)和850 hPa风场(箭矢，单位：m·s-1；实线和虚线分别为正、负位相海温异常年副高5880 gpm特征等值线)的差值合成分布(只显示达到0.1显著性信度水平的矢量)
Figure 10.
Composite difference of (a) vertical cross sections of vertical velocity (shaded, unit: 10-2 Pa·s-1) and zonal circulation (arrows) averaged along 5°S—5°N, (b) OLR (shaded, unit: W·m-2) and 850 hPa wind field (arrows, unit: m·s-1; solid and dashed line indicate the positive and negative SST years composite 5880 gpm isohypse respectively) between positive and negative SST phase years during Guangxi FRS in the configurations of NP normal (only show the vector passing 0.1 significance level)
图 11
NP独立(a)和NP普通(b)配置下海温正、负位相年广西前汛期1000~300 hPa整层水汽通量(箭矢，单位：kg·m-1·s-1)和水汽通量散度(色标，单位：g·m-2·s-1)的差值合成分布(矢量以及打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 11.
Composite difference of water vapor flux (arrows, unit: kg·m-1·s-1) and water vapor flux divergence (shaded, unit: g·m-2·s-1) integrated from 1000 hPa to 300 hPa between positive and negative SST phase years during Guangxi FRS in the configurations of (a) NP independent and (b) NP normal (vectors and the dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
图 12
NP普通配置下海温正、负位相年广西前汛期沿105°E—120°E平均垂直剖面上对流不稳定度(色标，单位：10-3 K·hPa-1)和垂直速度(等值虚线，单位：10-2 Pa·s-1，只显示小于-0.1，间隔0.4)的差值合成分布(打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 12.
Composite difference of vertical cross sections of convective instability (shaded, unit: 10-3 K·hPa-1) and vertical velocity (dash contour, unit: 10-2 Pa·s-1, only show the values less than -0.1, interval is 0.4) averaged along 105°E—120°E between positive and negative SST phase years during Guangxi FRS in the configurations of NP normal (the dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
图 13
NP独立(a)和NP普通(b)配置下海温正、负位相年广西前汛期ERA5降水的(单位：mm)的差值合成分布(打点区域表示达到0.1的显著性信度水平)
Figure 13.
Composite difference of ERA5 precipitation (unit: mm) between positive and negative SST phase years during Guangxi FRS in the configurations of (a) NP independent and (b) NP normal (dotted areas indicate the values passing 0.1 significance level)
表 1
NP普通年和NP独立年的位相配置分布
Table 1.
Distribution of the phase configurations of NP normal and NP independent years
位相 NP普通年份 NP独立年份 正 1992、1993、1996、1997、2005、2014、2015、2016、2019 1993、1996、2005、2014 负 1980、1985、1988、1999、2000、2006、2008、2012 1980、2006、2012 
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