War in Ukraine: Impact on global agri-food trade

Abstract

The conditions and trends of the global agri-food market are elastic to crises and conflicts involving major market players, which threatens food security by blocking sustainable international trade opportunities due to the destruction of production capacity and value chains, as well as supply channels to consumer countries. The purpose of this study was to investigate the specific features and consequences of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict on world agricultural trade and food security at the national and global levels. The scientific conclusions are the result of the application of economic and statistical (time series, index, and factor analysis) and dialectical (induction and deduction, analysis, and synthesis) methods of scientific cognition. It was found that the universal features of wars include the ability to influence the global economy, create new geopolitical and economic uncertainty, rapidly increase prices for critical resources (energy), and ensure destabilisation of global value chains. As a result, the disruption of sustainable trade flows caused by military conflicts is an important source of changes in the global economy and the situation of individual countries and regions. It was proved that military operations on the territory of Ukraine led to restrictions in agriculture and forced adaptation of agribusiness to the factors of critical vulnerability. There are trends towards a reduction in production and the breakdown of conventional supply chains for agri-food products due to the destruction of the logistics infrastructure, which, together with a reduction in exports of agricultural products and fertilisers from Russia, has led to a rise in world food prices. As a result, the “price” of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the global economy is being formed, with growing hunger and poverty, as well as the environmental footprint of military operations. The practical significance of the findings of this study lies in the possibility of their application in strategic planning and substantiation of the areas of post-war reconstruction of the national economy in general and its agricultural sector specifically, as well as the restoration and strengthening of Ukraine’s role in global food chains and combating hunger