Numerically statistical investigation of the partly super-exponential growth rate in the COVID-19 pandemic (throughout the world)

Abstract

Abstract A number of particles in a multiplying medium under rather general conditions is asymptotically exponential with respect to time t with the parameter λ, i.e., with the index of power λ ⁢ t {\lambda t} . If the medium is random, then the parameter λ is the random variable. To estimate the temporal asymptotics of the mean particles number (via the medium realizations), it is possible to average the exponential function via the corresponding distribution. Assuming that this distribution is Gaussian, the super-exponential estimate of the mean particle number could be obtained and expressed by the exponent with the index of power t ⁢ E ⁢ λ + t 2 ⁢ D ⁢ λ 2 {t{\rm E}\lambda+t^{2}{\rm D}\frac{\lambda}{2}} . The application of this new formula to investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic is performed.