A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA

Published:2018-07-03 Issue:1 Volume:23 Page:
ISSN:1558-3708
Container-title:Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Mariolis Theodore¹,Konstantakis Konstantinos N.²,Michaelides Panayotis G.³⁴,Tsionas Efthymios G.⁵⁶

Affiliation:

1. Panteion University , Athens , Greece

2. National Technical University of Athens , Zografou Campus , Athens , Greece

3. Laboratory of Theoretical and Applied Economics, School of Applied Mathematics and Physics , National Technical University of Athens , Heroon Polytechneiou 9, 157.80, Zografou Campus , Athens , Greece , Phone: +302107721624, Fax: +302107721618

4. Systemic Risk Centre, London School of Economics , London , UK

5. Athens University of Economics and Business , Athens , Greece

6. Lancaster University Management School , Lancaster , UK

Abstract

Abstract This paper incorporates the so-called Bhaduri-Marglin accumulation function in Goodwin’s original growth cycle model and econometrically estimates the proposed model for the case of the US economy in the time period 1960–2012, using a modern Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method. Based on our findings, the US economy follows an exhilarationist regime throughout our investigation period with the sole exception of an underconsumption regime for the time period 1974–1978. In general, the results suggest that the proposed approach is an appropriate vehicle for expanding and improving traditional Goodwin-type models.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Social Sciences (miscellaneous),Analysis,Economics and Econometrics,Social Sciences (miscellaneous),Analysis

Link

https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/snde-2016-0137/pdf

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