Factors Determining Seasonal Variations in Traffic Volumes

Abstract

Abstract The characteristics of seasonal variations in traffic volumes are used for a variety of purposes, for example to determine the basic parameters describing annual average daily traffic – AADT, and design hourly volume – DHV, analyses of road network reliability, and traffic management. Via these analyses proper classification of road sections into appropriate seasonal factor groups (SFGs) has a decisive influence on results. This article, on the basis of computational experiments (models of artificial neural networks, discriminatory analysis), aims to identify which factors have the greatest impact on the allocation of a section of road to the corresponding SFG, based on short-term measurements. These factors are presented as qualitative data: the Polish region, spatial relationships, functions of road, cross-sections, technical class; and quantitative data: rush hour traffic volume.