Kriging-based prediction of the Earth’s pole coordinates

Abstract

Abstract Coordinates of the Earth’s pole represent two out of five Earth orientation parameters describing Earth’s rotation. They are necessary in transformation between celestial reference frame and terrestrial reference frame and what goes further in precise positioning and navigation, applications in astronomy, communication with outer space objects. Complexity of measuring techniques and data processing involved in the pole coordinates determination make it impossible to obtain them in real-time mode, hence a prediction problem of the polar motion emerges. In this study, geostatistical prediction methods, i. e., simple and ordinary kriging are applied. Millions of predictions have been performed to draw reasonable conclusions on prediction capabilities of applied kriging variants. The study is intended in ultra-short-term prediction (up to 15 days into the future) using the IERS EOP 14 C04 (IAU2000A) and IERS EOP 05 C04 (IAU2000A) series as a reference. Mean absolute prediction errors (for days 1–15) with respect to IERS 14 C04 are ranging 0.66–5.25 mas for PMx and 0.47–3.59 mas for PMy. On the other hand, for IERS 05 C04 the values are 0.60–4.95 mas and 0.44–3.29 mas for PMx and PMy; respectively. The results indicate competitiveness of the introduced methods with existing ones.