Retrospective voting in Georgia: does the government’s past performance matter?

Abstract

Voters are often assumed to be of tertiary importance in less than democratic contexts – the regime can manipulate, buy, or outright steal their votes goes the predominant logic. This article however shows that voters not only matter but engaged in retrospective voting in Georgia, a country with imperfect political competition, between 2008 and 2015. Analysis of two waves of nationally representative survey data from 2012 to 2015 supports the retrospective voting theory, with a positive relationship between voter support for the incumbent party and positive assessments of government policies related to socio-economic, democratization, and security issues. Citizens who assess government policies negatively are more prone to voting for opposition candidates or not voting at all compared to those who are more satisfied with the government’s performance in Georgia. Notably, these findings are very similar for two governments led by two very different parties in Georgia: the United National Movement (2008–2012) and Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia (since 2012). Hence, I conclude that disregarding voters’ preferences has negative consequences for the legitimation and survival of the incumbent.