Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model

Author:

Acemoglu Daron1,Chernozhukov Victor1,Werning Iván1,Whinston Michael D.2

Affiliation:

1. MIT Economics Department (email: )

2. MIT Economics Department and Sloan School of Management (email: )

Abstract

We study targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model where infection, hospitalization, and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young,” the “middle-aged,” and the “old.” Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter protective measures such as lockdowns on the more vulnerable, old group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the old both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups. (JEL H51, I12, I18, J13, J14)

Publisher

American Economic Association

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