Machine Learning Algorithms for Power System Sign Classification and a Multivariate Stacked LSTM Model for Predicting the Electricity Imbalance Volume

Abstract

AbstractThe energy transition to a cleaner environment has been a concern for many researchers and policy makers, as well as communities and non-governmental organizations. The effects of climate change are evident, temperatures everywhere in the world are getting higher and violent weather phenomena are more frequent, requiring clear and firm pro-environmental measures. Thus, we will discuss the energy transition and the support provided by artificial intelligence (AI) applications to achieve a cleaner and healthier environment. The focus will be on applications driving the energy transition, the significant role of AI, and collective efforts to improve societal interactions and living standards. The price of electricity is included in almost all goods and services and should be affordable for the sustainable development of economies. Therefore, it is important to model, anticipate and understand the trend of electricity markets. The electricity price includes an imbalance component which is the difference between notifications and real-time operation. Ideally it is zero, but in real operation such differences are normal due to load variation, lack of renewable energy sources (RES) accurate prediction, unplanted outages, etc. Therefore, additional energy has to be produced or some generating units are required to reduce generation to balance the power system. Usually, this activity is performed on the balancing market (BM) by the transmission system operator (TSO) that gathers offers from generators to gradually reduce or increase the output. Therefore, the prediction of the imbalance volume along with the prices for deficit and surplus is of paramount importance for producers’ decision makers to create offers on the BM. The main goal is to predict the imbalance volume and minimize the costs that such imbalance may cause. In this chapter, we propose a method to predict the imbalance volume based on the classification of the imbalance sign that is inserted into the dataset for predicting the imbalance volume. The imbalance sign is predicted using several classifiers and the output of the classification is added to the input dataset. The rest of the exogenous variables are shifted to the values from previous day d − 1. Therefore, the input variables are either predicted (like the imbalance sign) or are known from d − 1. Several metrics, such as mean average percentage error (MAPE), determination coefficient R2 and mean average error (MAE) are calculated to assess the proposed method of combining classification machine learning (ML) algorithms and recurrent neural networks (RNN) that memorize variations, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) model.