Hierarchical Bayesian Integrated Modeling of Age- and Sex-Structured Wildlife Population Dynamics

Abstract

AbstractBiodiversity of large wild mammals is declining at alarming rates worldwide. It is therefore imperative to develop effective population conservation and recovery strategies. Population dynamics models can provide insights into processes driving declines of particular populations of a species and their relative importance. But there are insufficient tools, namely population dynamics models for wild herbivores, for characterizing their decline and for guiding conservation and management actions. Therefore, we have developed a model which can serve as a tool to fill that void. Specifically, we develop an integrated Bayesian state-space population dynamics model for wildlife populations and illustrate it using a topi population inhabiting the Greater Mara-Serengeti Ecosystem in Kenya and Tanzania. The model integrates ground demographic survey with aerial survey monitoring data. It incorporates population age and sex structure and life history traits and strategies and relates birth rates, age-specific survival rates and sex ratios with meteorological covariates, prior population density, environmental seasonality and predation risk. It runs on a monthly time step, enabling accurate characterization of reproductive seasonality, phenology, synchrony and prolificacy of births, juvenile and adult recruitments. Model performance is evaluated using balanced bootstrap sampling and by comparing model predictions with empirical aerial population size estimates. The hierarchical Bayesian model is implemented using MCMC methods for parameter estimation, prediction and inference and reproduces several well-known features of the Mara topi population, including striking and persistent population decline, seasonality of births, juvenile and adult recruitments. It is general and can be readily adapted for other wildlife species and extended to incorporate several additional useful features. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.