Performance prediction, pacing profile and running pattern of elite 1-h track running events

Abstract

Abstract Purpose This study aimed at comparing the predictive accuracy of the power law (PL), 2-parameter hyperbolic (HYP) and linear (LIN) models on elite 1-h track running performance, and evaluating pacing profile and running pattern of the men’s best two 1-h track running performances of all times. Methods The individual running speed–distance profile was obtained for nine male elite runners using the three models. Different combinations of personal bests times (3000 m-marathon) were used to predict performance. The level of absolute agreement between predicted and actual performance was evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), paired t test and Bland–Altman analysis. A video analysis was performed to assess pacing profile and running pattern. Results Regardless of the predictors used, no significant differences (p > 0.05) between predicted and actual performances were observed for the PL model. A good agreement was found for the HYP and LIN models only when the half-marathon was the longest event predictor used (ICC = 0.718–0.737, p < 0.05). Critical speed (CS) was highly dependent on the predictors used. Unlike CS, PLV20 (i.e., the running speed corresponding to a 20-min performance estimated using the PL model) was associated with 1-h track running performances (r = 0.722–0.807, p < 0.05). An even pacing profile with minimal changes of step length and frequency was observed. Conclusions The PL model may offer the more realistic 1-h track running performance prediction among the models investigated. An even pacing might be the best strategy for succeeding in such running events.