A minimal model for adaptive SIS epidemics

Abstract

AbstractThe interplay between disease spreading and personal risk perception is of key importance for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. We propose a planar system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to describe the co-evolution of a spreading phenomenon and the average link density in the personal contact network. Contrary to standard epidemic models, we assume that the contact network changes based on the current prevalence of the disease in the population, i.e. the network adapts to the current state of the epidemic. We assume that personal risk perception is described using two functional responses: one for link-breaking and one for link-creation. The focus is on applying the model to epidemics, but we also highlight other possible fields of application. We derive an explicit form for the basic reproduction number and guarantee the existence of at least one endemic equilibrium, for all possible functional responses. Moreover, we show that for all functional responses, limit cycles do not exist. This means that our minimal model is not able to reproduce consequent waves of an epidemic, and more complex disease or behavioural dynamics are required to reproduce epidemic waves.