Early warning signals of complex critical transitions in deterministic dynamics

Abstract

AbstractEarly Warning Signals (EWS) have generated much excitement for their potential to anticipate transitions in various systems, ranging from climate change in ecology to disease staging in medicine. EWS hold particular promise for bifurcations, a transition mechanism in which a smooth, gradual change in a control parameter of the system results in a rapid change in system dynamics. The predominant reason to expect EWS is because many bifurcations are preceded by Critical Slowing Down (CSD): if assuming the system is subject to continuous, small, Gaussian noise, the system is slower to recover from perturbations closer to the transition. However, this focus on warning signs generated by stochasticity has overshadowed warning signs which may already be found in deterministic dynamics. This is especially true for higher-dimensional systems, where more complex attractors with intrinsic dynamics such as oscillations not only become possible—they are increasingly more likely. The present study focuses on univariate and multivariate EWS in deterministic dynamics to anticipate complex critical transitions, including the period-doubling cascade to chaos, chaos-chaos transitions, and the extinction of a chaotic attractor. In a four-dimensional continuous-time Lotka–Volterra model, EWS perform well for most bifurcations, even with lower data quality. The present study highlights three reasons why EWS may still work in the absence of CSD: changing attractor morphology (size, shape, and location in phase space), shifting power spectra (amplitude and frequency), and chaotic transitional characteristics (density across attractor). More complex attractors call for different warning detection methods to utilise warning signs already contained within purely deterministic dynamics.