High hopes but aiming low? Explaining why some families with high educational aspirations do not choose the academic track in German secondary education

Abstract

AbstractSelecting a school track after primary schooling is an early and highly influential decision families have to make in the German educational system. Usually, families with high educational aspirations choose the academic track since it is the direct pathway to higher education eligibility, yet there are families selecting another track. Explaining this decision is highly relevant since it is known that other tracks can divert aspirations away from the initial high goals, resulting in overall lower educational achievements. The present study analyzes the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) dataset to investigate predictors of academic track selection (N > 1500). As dominance analyses show, the overall share of variance that all factors can explain is relatively low (ca. 13%), and only the teacher recommendation and the federal state of residence contribute meaningfully to this total share. Overall, it remains unclear what drives the decision, and other explanatory approaches should be investigated.