Enhancing flood wave modelling of reservoir failure: a comparative study of structure-from-motion based 2D and 3D methodologies

Abstract

AbstractPredicting flood wave propagation from reservoir failures is critical to practical flood hazard assessment and risk management. Flood waves are sensitive to topography, channel geometry, structures, and natural features along floodplain paths. Thus, the accuracy of flood wave modelling depends on how precisely those features are represented. This study introduces an enhancing approach to flood wave modelling by accurately representing three-dimensional objects in floodplains using the structure-from-motion (SfM). This method uses an unmanned aerial vehicle to capture topographic complexities and account for ground objects that impact flood propagation. Using the three-dimensional volume of fluid numerical approach significantly improves an enhanced representation of turbulent flow dynamics and computational efficiency, especially in handling large topography datasets. Reproductions from this enhanced three-dimensional approach were validated against recent reservoir failure observations and contrasted with traditional two-dimensional models. The results revealed that the suggested three-dimensional methodology achieved a significant 84.4% reproducibility when juxtaposed with actual inundation traces. It was 35.5%p more accurate than the two-dimensional diffusion wave equation (DWE) and 17.1%p more than the shallow water equation (SWE) methods in predicting flood waves. This suggests that the reproducibility of the DWE and SWE decreases compared to the three-dimensional approach when considering more complex floodplains. These results demonstrate that three-dimensional flood wave analysis with the SfM methodology is optimal for effectively minimising topographic and flood wave reproduction errors across extensive areas. This dual reduction in errors significantly enhances the reliability of flood hazard assessments and improves risk management by providing more precise and realistic predictions of flood waves.