Vulnerability assessment of landslides along the Yunnan section of the Northern Tropic of Cancer based on fuzzy evidence weight model

Abstract

AbstractFrequent geological disasters pose significant threats to both human lives and property. High-risk landslides, with features such as rapid occurrence, wide distribution, and strong destructiveness, are of particular concern. To investigate the distribution characteristics and threat range of landslides, the Yunnan section of the Northern Tropic of Cancer was selected as the study area. Based on the fuzzy evidence weight model and using a grid size of 1000 m × 1000 m as the study unit, a vulnerability assessment of landslides along the Northern Tropic of Cancer in Yunnan was conducted. This assessment involved constructing a set of 13 evaluation indicator factors from three aspects: geological environment, geographical environment, and human engineering activities. The assessment results were subsequently subjected to precision verification. The results are as follows: (1) The overall vulnerability of landslides in the Yunnan section of the Northern Tropic of Cancer is moderate, covering an area of 25,968.79 km2. This area constitutes the largest proportion, accounting for 46.30% of the entire study area and is primarily distributed in counties such as Yanshan, Funing, and Shuangjiang. The highly vulnerable area covers 15,942.27 km2, representing 28.43% of the total study area. This region is mainly distributed in counties such as Gejiu, Yuanjiang, and Mojiang. (2) The main triggering factors for landslides are twofold: first, large-scale slope instability caused by excavation in human engineering activities, leading to extensive unstable slopes affected by long-term weathering and gravitational effects. Second, soil erosion resulting from land cultivation leads to the collapse and sliding of weathered and fragmented rocks under the influence of heavy rainfall and water erosion. During routine geological disaster patrols, special attention should be given to these factors, with a focus on implementing engineering measures in areas with more fragile geological environments. (3) Precision verification of the assessment results was conducted using both receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Success rate curves. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the success rate curve and ROC curve were 0.85 and 0.74, respectively. The verification results showed high accuracy and feasibility of the evaluation method.