Patterns of stability in complex contagions

Abstract

AbstractContagions refer to the spread or transmission of diseases, behaviors, beliefs, or emotions. While some contagions easily propagate throughout entire populations, others seem to be more constrained and propagate only within specific parts of the population. This arises not just because of different transmission rates but because of qualitative differences in the mechanisms with which contagions propagate throughout a network. Diseases typically propagate through single connections, while behaviors and beliefs often necessitate multiple connections for further propagation, termed complex contagions. In this paper, we propose a graph reduction method to reduce a network to include only connections immediately relevant to the propagation of a complex contagion. Through repeated application, we obtain structures that remain stable under the reduction, allowing us to define and measure for any given network, (i) strongly contagious components, (ii) weakly contagious components, and (iii) bridge components. Information about the size and location of these components can be used as a meaningful basis to assess and prevent the potential spread of harmful contagions as well as incentivize the spread of beneficial contagions.