1. Sergei A. Vassin, “The Determinants and Implications of an Aging Population in Russia,” in Russia’s Demographic Crisis, eds. Julie Da Vanzo and Gwendolyn Farnsworth (Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation: 1996), 175–200.
2. Some analyses predict extremely low fertility rates in the early part of the twenty-first century that, if realized, would elevate the median age even faster (see, for example, Charles M. Becker and David D. Hemley, “Demographic Change in the Former Soviet Union During the Transition Period,” World Development 26, no. 11 (1998): 1957–1975.
3. Barbara A. Anderson and Brian D. Silver, “Demographic Consequences of World War II on the non-Russian Nationalities of the USSR,” in The Impact of World War II on the Soviet Union, ed. Susan J. Linz (Totowa, NJ: 1985), 207–242; Alain Blum, “Uncovering the Hidden Demographic History of the USSR,” Population Today 19, no. 7/8 (1991): 6–8.
4. Kevin Kinsella, “Changes in Life Expectancy 1900–1990,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55, Supplement, no. 6 (1992): 1196S–1202S.
5. One factor that may have affected the decrease in life expectancy in Russia is a change in the definition of infant mortality. In 1993, the World Health Organization’s definition was introduced into the Russian health system. This definition is broader than the one previously used in Russia, and as a result, some infant deaths that previously were recorded as stillbirths are now considered to have occurred as live births. Applying this new definition would increase the reported infant mortality rate and thus lower life expectancy at birth, since the latter is a summary measure of mortality that includes infant deaths. Thus, even if the actual mortality level remained the same, such a statistical revision would create the impression of worsening mortality. However, the estimated decrease in life expectancy from this revision would be less than half a year (see Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, France Meslé, and Jacques Vallin, “Recent Trends in Life Expectancy and Cause of Death in Russia, 1970–1993,” in Premature Death in the New Independent States, eds. José Luis Bobadilla, Christine A. Costello, and Faith Mitchell [Washington, D.C: 1997], 34–65). A confounding factor in the analysis of mortality is that the dissemination of the new definition of a live birth has not necessarily been uniform across all areas of the country. It likely would take months or years for the new definition to be widely and successfully implemented.