Model Transfer and Universal Patterns: Lessons from the Yule Process

Abstract

AbstractModel transfer refers to the observation that particular model structures are used across multiple distinct scientific domains. This paper puts forward an account to explain the inter-domain transfer of model structures. Central in the account is the role of validation criteria in determining whether a model is considered to be useful by practitioners. Validation criteria are points of reference to which model correctness for a particular purpose is assessed. I argue that validation criteria can be categorized as being mathematical, theoretical or phenomenological in nature. Model transfer is explained by overlap in validation criteria between scientific domains. Particular emphasis is placed on overlap between phenomenological criteria. Overlap in phenomenological criteria can be explained through the notion of universal patterns. Universal patterns are abstract structures that can be made to refer to multiple distinct phenomena when coupled with phenomena-specific empirical content. I present the case study of the Yule Process, in which universal patterns play a crucial role in explaining model transfer. This paper provides an account of model transfer that stays close to modelling practice and expands existing accounts by introducing the notion of universal patterns.