Abstract
AbstractThe paper focuses on the nexus between climate change and armed conflicts with an empirical analysis based on a panel of 2653 georeferenced cells for the African continent between 1990 and 2016. Our econometric approach addresses unobservable heterogeneity in predicting the probability of violent events and the persistency of conflicting behaviour over time. The proposed strategy also accounts for both changes in climatic conditions and spatial dynamics. The two main findings carry policy-relevant implications. First, changes in climatic conditions influence the probability of conflicts over large spatial ranges, thus suggesting that the design of adaptation policies to reduce climate vulnerability should account for multiple spatial interrelations. Second, the persistency of violence calls for planning adaptation strategies for climate resilience jointly designed with measures in support of peacekeeping.
Funder
Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca
Ministerio de Ciencia Tecnología y Telecomunicaciones
Università degli Studi Roma Tre
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Economics and Econometrics,Sociology and Political Science,Finance
Cited by
14 articles.
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