Climatological Study of SPEI Drought Index Using Observed and CRU Gridded Dataset over Ethiopia

Abstract

AbstractThis study aims to investigate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) using the monthly observed and gridded Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset across 13 stations in Ethiopia during the period 1970–2005. SPEI is computed at a 4-month timescale to represent drought during the Belg (February–May) and Kirmet (June–September) seasons separately, and at an 8-month timescale to represent the drought during these two seasons together (February–September). The results show that there are extremely strong correlations (R ≥ 0.8) between the estimated precipitation values from CRU and the observed values, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 4–99 mm and mean percentage error (MPE%) of −30 to 73% at most stations. For temperature and SPEI, the CRU shows almost strong correlations (0.6 ≤ R < 0.8), while the dominant values of RMSE and MPE are 0.7–5 °C and −22 to 26%, respectively, for temperature and 0.28–0.96 and −49 to 55%, respectively, for SPEI during the three seasons. It is also found that each of the SPEI clusters (dry, normal, and wet) estimated from CRU has a high success percentage (≥ 60%) at more than 50% of the stations, while the general accuracy exceeds 60% for the three SPEI clusters together at more than 75% of the stations. Finally, the correct hits for the estimated SPEI clusters from CRU are often within the corresponding observed cluster but may shift into another category (extreme, severe, and moderate) except for a few events.