Optimisation and evaluation of the random forest model in the efficacy prediction of chemoradiotherapy for advanced cervical cancer based on radiomics signature from high-resolution T2 weighted images

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Our objective was to establish a random forest model and to evaluate its predictive capability of the treatment effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy–radiation therapy. Methods This retrospective study included 82 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who underwent scanning from March 2013 to May 2018. The random forest model was established and optimised based on the open source toolkit scikit-learn. Byoptimising of the number of decision trees in the random forest, the criteria for selecting the final partition index and the minimum number of samples partitioned by each node, the performance of random forest in the prediction of the treatment effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy–radiation therapy on advanced cervical cancer (> IIb) was evaluated. Results The number of decision trees in the random forests influenced the model performance. When the number of decision trees was set to 10, 25, 40, 55, 70, 85 and 100, the performance of random forest model exhibited an increasing trend first and then a decreasing one. The criteria for the selection of final partition index showed significant effects on the generation of decision trees. The Gini index demonstrated a better effect compared with information gain index. The area under the receiver operating curve for Gini index attained a value of 0.917. Conclusion The random forest model showed potential in predicting the treatment effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy–radiation therapy based on high-resolution T2WIs for advanced cervical cancer (> IIb).