Abstract
Abstract
Context
Global change is leading to more frequent and intense tree damage and mortality events. Drought-induced tree mortality is occurring worldwide leading to broad-scale events, but the spatial patterns of tree damage and mortality, their underlying drivers and their variation over time is largely unknown.
Objectives
We investigated the spatial patterns of tree damage and mortality across Mediterranean forests of the Iberian Peninsula, the underlying effects of stand structure and climate, and how the spatial patterns and relationships with underlying drivers changed over time.
Methods
We used the Spanish Forest Inventory to analyse the autocorrelation in tree damage and mortality across forest types, hurdle-gamma models to quantify the effect of stand structure and climate on tree damage and mortality, and cross-correlograms to assess their spatial dependence and its change over time.
Results
We observed a greater magnitude and a stronger autocorrelation in tree damage than mortality, with positive aggregation up to 20 kms. There was a spatial dependence between tree damage and mortality with their drivers, with spatial aggregation increasing with water availability, drought intensity and stand structure. The spatial dependence of tree damage and mortality with the underlying drivers increased over time, particularly for drought intensity.
Conclusions
Our results suggest that the combined effect of intense competition and drought could favour more extensive die-off and tree mortality events, providing key information for identifying vulnerable areas and the planning of adaptation measures.
Funder
Universidad de Alcalá
Complutense University of Madrid
Spanish Science and Innovation Ministry
ADAPTAMIX
Spanish Ministry of Science
Ministry of Universities, Spain and Next Generation-EU
Spanish MICINN
Department of Education of the Basque Government
Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico
Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation
Community of Madrid Region under the framework of the multi-year Agreement with the University of Alcalá
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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