A family of process-based models to simulate landscape use by multiple taxa
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Published:2024-05-02
Issue:5
Volume:39
Page:
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ISSN:1572-9761
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Container-title:Landscape Ecology
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Landsc Ecol
Author:
Gardner EmmaORCID, Robinson Robert A., Julian Angela, Boughey Katherine, Langham Steve, Tse-Leon Jenny, Petrovskii Sergei, Baker David J., Bellamy Chloe, Buxton Andrew, Franks Samantha, Monk Chris, Morris Nicola, Park Kirsty J., Petrovan Silviu, Pitt Katie, Taylor Rachel, Turner Rebecca K., Allain Steven J. R., Bradley Val, Broughton Richard K., Cartwright Mandy, Clarke Kevin, Cranfield Jon, Fuentes-Montemayor Elisa, Gandola Robert, Gent Tony, Hinsley Shelley A., Madsen Thomas, Reading Chris, Redhead John W., Reveley Sonia, Wilkinson John, Williams Carol, Woodward Ian, Baker John, Briggs Philip, Dyason Sheila, Langton Steve, Mawby Ashlea, Pywell Richard F., Bullock James M.
Abstract
Abstract
Context
Land-use change is a key driver of biodiversity loss. Models that accurately predict how biodiversity might be affected by land-use changes are urgently needed, to help avoid further negative impacts and inform landscape-scale restoration projects. To be effective, such models must balance model realism with computational tractability and must represent the different habitat and connectivity requirements of multiple species.
Objectives
We explored the extent to which process-based modelling might fulfil this role, examining feasibility for different taxa and potential for informing real-world decision-making.
Methods
We developed a family of process-based models (*4pop) that simulate landscape use by birds, bats, reptiles and amphibians, derived from the well-established poll4pop model (designed to simulate bee populations). Given landcover data, the models predict spatially-explicit relative abundance by simulating optimal home-range foraging, reproduction, dispersal of offspring and mortality. The models were co-developed by researchers, conservation NGOs and volunteer surveyors, parameterised using literature data and expert opinion, and validated against observational datasets collected across Great Britain.
Results
The models were able to simulate habitat specialists, generalists, and species requiring access to multiple habitats for different types of resources (e.g. breeding vs foraging). We identified model refinements required for some taxa and considerations for modelling further species/groups.
Conclusions
We suggest process-based models that integrate multiple forms of knowledge can assist biodiversity-inclusive decision-making by predicting habitat use throughout the year, expanding the range of species that can be modelled, and enabling decision-makers to better account for landscape context and habitat configuration effects on population persistence.
Funder
Natural Environment Research Council
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference68 articles.
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