A synthetic approach to the Holiday Climate Index for the Mediterranean Coast of Türkiye

Abstract

AbstractClimate change affects the comfort level of tourists visiting coastal areas. Researching these impacts is important for a more comprehensive understanding of climate change and for developing effective adaptation solutions. Considering this fact, the study derived the Holiday Climate Index (HCI: Coast, HCI: Urban, and HCI: Combined) in the Mediterranean coastal provinces of Türkiye from 1976 to 2020. Utilizing the derived indices, the effects of climate-related holiday comfort on the number of tourist arrivals as well as on overnight stays between 1976 and 2020 were examined by panel data analysis. The study examined how comfort patterns could change during the period 2026–2050 under the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario. It was detected that the comfort level significantly and positively affects the number of arrivals and overnight stays of tourists. Besides, comfort levels were found to deteriorate in the period 2026–2050 compared to the reference period, 1976–2020. As the comfort conditions get worse, the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays is expected to decline in the future. It is envisaged that the results of the study can be useful for tourists, tourism professionals, operators, other stakeholders, and policymakers.