Resilience-Based Decision Criteria for Optimal Regeneration

Abstract

AbstractComplex capital goods, such as jet engines, are critical to the functioning of modern societies. These sys- tems are exposed to various threats that cannot be prevented entirely. Thus, the concept of resilience – encompassing reliability as well as robustness and recovery in the presence of a disruptive event – is combined with efficient reliability methods to support decision making for complex capital goods. As fundamental step, the current work addresses the generation of a functional model from a physical model based on sensitivity analyses. The developed resilience analysis framework is applied to this model in order to derive conclusions supporting decision maker while incorporating monetary and technical aspects. A combination with the concept of survival signature allows efficient reliability analysis in repeated model evaluations. A novel methodology is developed by amalgamating the non-intrusive stochastic simulation method and the concept of survival signature leading to an significant reduction of the computational effort when considering mixed uncertainties.