Assessing the Impact of Climate Variability on Wind Energy Potential in Decarbonization Scenarios in Energy Systems Models

Abstract

AbstractAnticipated changes in wind patterns and magnitudes due to climate change pose potential challenges to future wind energy potential. Using three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) across five global climate models, the impacts of climate variability on wind energy potential were assessed, utilizing the wind capacity factor as a comparable value. The evaluation includes all operating onshore and offshore wind farms globally over the remainder of the century. Adopting global statistical analysis methods and the TIMES United States model (TUSM), the influence of climate variability on wind energy is modeled, providing insights into how specific decarbonization scenarios impact the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). Results reveal minimal variation in capacity factor values among the SSP scenarios, indicating that wind energy is likely to remain a robust power generation source, regardless of the chosen decarbonization scenario. These findings hold important implications for wind turbine design, deployment strategies, and regional energy planning and policy. The study underscores the need to consider climate variability in decarbonization strategies, emphasizing the role of wind energy in aligning with the objectives of SDG 7 and SDG 11.